Energy & EVs: How will China hit its 2035 Carbon Targets?
China was responsible for 30% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 according to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.
This was nearly 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
In 2020, the country announced its goal to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
At a United Nations summit ahead of COP30, China’s President Xi Jinping confirmed that China’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would cover all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases – not just CO₂.
“Since I announced the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals five years ago, China has built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, built the world's largest and most complete new energy industry chain and contributed a quarter of the world's new green area,” said President Xi Jinping.
“No matter how the international situation changes, China's active actions to respond to climate change will not slow down, its efforts to promote international cooperation will not weaken and its efforts to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind will not stop.”
UN Secretary General António Guterres said: “As we heard today, the world is moving forward. Full-speed ahead. No group or government can stop the clean energy revolution.”
What’s behind China’s climate goals?
Under the Paris Agreement, governments are required to submit and update their NDCs every five years.
These NDCs represent short to medium term plans and each subsequent submission should reflect higher ambition than the previous one.
The third round of NDCs are due in 2025 to detail countries’ intended actions through 2035, taking into account the Global Stocktake.
China plans to publish its new NDCs before COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November 2025.
Outside of these targets, in February 2025 the Chinese government announced that it intends to effectively eliminate severe air pollution before 2026.
The biggest sources of China’s emissions are the power sector, covering 48% of CO₂ emissions from energy and industrial processes, industry with 36%, transport with 8% and buildings with 5% according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
Renewable energy and coal
The energy sector is the source of nearly 90% of China’s greenhouse gas emissions according to the IEA.
Energy policy therefore has a big role to play in moving the country towards its goals.
The IEA predicts that under China’s currently announced pledges, low-carbon energy will overtake fossil fuels before 2040 with a fossil fuels peak in 2025.
China’s contributions to lower carbon technologies have been driven by the government’s five year plans and have led to cost reductions that impact cleaner energy around the world, particularly in solar PV.
Renewables are expected to make up 80% of China’s electricity generation by 2060.
Public spending in the country on low-carbon energy R&D has risen by 70% since 2015 and the country is responsible for 10% of patenting activity in renewables and EVs worldwide.
Electrification
Electrification can tackle emissions across industry, transport and buildings – some of China’s biggest emitting sectors.
These technologies can reduce direct fossil fuel use and allow these industries to benefit from cleaner energy as the power generation sector is decarbonised.
Electrification technologies are also often more energy efficient than their fossil fuel counterparts, potentially reducing the amount of power China uses.
In 2023, around 60% of new electric car registrations were in China and more than one in three new cars registered were electric according to the IEA.
It also exported 1.2 million EVs in 2023.
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